A ‘Swearing In’ Tomorrow, Issa coup d’état Tonight
This is for the conspiracy theorists who believe that one day it shall come to pass. The swearing in ceremony is the much awaited event of this year yet its only January. Every Kenyan in the country and abroad is anticipating for tomorrow’s event like any other day not knowing the impact it is going to have on the sovereignty of the Kenyan people.
The reality after today is the ‘Swearing In’ ceremony in preparation at the back stage by the puppeteers and gods of power. However, the reality today is has endless possibilities. One out of the many likely possibilities is a coup d’etat.
Also, this option is likely to be ruled out from tomorrow’s possible outcome of events depending on the intelligence available to security forces. Perhaps, before we look at how Nasa’s generals could be planning a coup, let us familiarize ourselves with the concept of a coup.
A coup d’etat is defined as a sudden, unconstitutional deposition of a legitimate government, by a small group of the State Establishment which is usually the military. The military’s purpose is to replace the deposed government with another, either civil or military.
A coup d’etat is considered successful in the event that the usurpers mange to establish their legitimacy and the deposed government fails to thwart the efforts of the co-conspirators.
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Let’s now look at several examples of successful and famous coup d’etat.
- Muammar Gaddaffi
At 27-year old Muamaar who was a junior army officer realized the weakness of King Idris. On September 1, 1969, Muammar Gadaffi drove military vehicles to Benghazi and Tripoli while king Idris was out of the country. Accompanied by 70 co-conspirators Muammar managed to surround the royal palace and key government buildings. In less than 2 hours the bloodless coup had come to an end.
- Idi Amin
While Milton Obote was attending a conference in Singapore, he ordered the arrest of Idi Amin who many say were close friends but had irreconcilable differences. Word of Idi Amin’s arrest managed to reach him before the arrest and he moved troops into the city of Kampala took possession of strategic buildings including the airport and announced a successful coup.
- The Orange Revolution
The Orange Revolution is characterized by a series of protests and political events which took place in Ukraine between November 2004 and January 2005. These protests had begun as a result of the run-off of Ukrainian presidential election that was marred by electoral fraud, massive corruption and voter intimidation. Protests were experienced across the country and the president was accused of civil disobedience which led to a re-vote that deposed the sitting Ukrainian leader.
- The Cuban Revolution
The Cuban revolution began in 1959 by revolutionary movements. The revolution was initiated by 160 poorly armed rebels who attacked two barracks one in Santiago and another in Bayamo. The revolution managed to depose General Fulgencio Batista who was a United States Proxy.
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Other successful revolutions include Nazi Take-Over, Iranian Revolution, Egyptian Revolution of 1952, Czech coup, Xinhai Revolution, Brumaire, Soviet Revolution and Glorious Revolution.
From the above successful coup d’état, two characteristics come out clearly. The coup does not require a large army. Castro of Cuba used less than 200 people while Muammar Gaddafi at 27 used less than a hundred men. Another characteristic from above coups is the use of Military.
NASA tried their first coup d’detat using the third example after the 8th August polls. Their plan was to start protests in major towns with the aim of manipulating the whole country which would force the government to succumb and install their leader as the supreme leader of the Kenyan people. Ever wondered why Raila had to be welcomed by supporters from the airport yet he has always gone out of the country many times?
The second time a coup is likely to take place is before the much awaited “swearing in” ceremony that is scheduled for tomorrow. This is because NASA leaders want the presidency of this country and not just a cheap ceremony that would not have any impact in their quest to depose Uhuru Kenyatta’s presidency.
All that NASA requires to successfully overthrow the government is to replace Military leaders by those loyal to them. Today is when the top cream of military leadership is vulnerable and what an opportunity to take advantage.
These leaders are likely to be in one place holding meetings in preparation for maintaining law and order tomorrow. This offers an opportunity for ambitious men to take charge and replace the government which has a higher chance of NASA leaders capturing power as opposed to the much anticipated ‘swearing in’ ceremony that would give them nothing.
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