RAILA VS RUTO: 2022 presidential showdown.
The game player, the ultimate slayer. Baba aka nyundo ndiye funzo. The latest play was to meet his arch enemy Uhuru Muigai Kenyatta; but to what avail many may ask? And what about the flower girls (Musalia, Wetangula and Kalonzo)? Do they have any hope for 2022? What does this mean for Ruto? Before we decipher the probable outcome of this handshake, let us look into Baba’s political game play and see how he has leveraged on deception to lure the masses.
Politics is the ultimate game of deception – the best players conceal their motives until the very end of the game. It is not that the players want to be deceptive but the game is hard and outright truth is a losing card. As Niccolo Machiavelli said, “politics have no relations to morals” and truth is a virtue of society but not power. Successful politics only runs on the wheel of deception.
Political deception relies on the concept of truth bias to manifest its colours. Truth bias is a situation where an individual believes another’s narrative despite evidence to the contrary. The same concept can clearly be observed from the game play of a con man. The trick does not lie in the deception but in your truth bias.
Many may allude that the handshake was for the betterment of the people of Kenya but for the politically sound, it was the only move Ralia had been left with on the chessboard. After the swearing in of the People’s President, Raila was out of game pieces.
The handshake indicated that Raila was deceiving all his followers including the flower girls. The MOU signed that Raila would support one of the flower girls come 2022 has just been undone with the handshake. It is clearly evident that Raila only wants power for himself and this handshake may safeguard his bid come 2022.
Let me elaborate why the handshake has strengthened Raila’s 2022 presidential bid. First, the flower girls were not going to support Raila’s presidential bid since they expected it was his turn to deliver votes for them. There was no benefit for Raila to continue with the marriage if it wasn’t going to bear any children and furthermore Raila’s move has advertently weakened the flower girls who have minimal national clout.
Second, president Uhuru wants to create his legacy during his last tenure and the handshake means that Raila would give him humble time to do so. In return Uhuru may choose not to take sides come 2022 and may take the silent route leaving Raila to battle it out with Ruto. The Kikuyu’s would most definitely front a presidential aspirant. Although the prospects of the aspirant winning would be minimal, it will cost Ruto more than Raila who has never tasted Kikuyu votes.
Thirdly, if given an option between Raila and Ruto, the undecided voters would most probably opt for Raila since Ruto has cultivated a dictatorial perspective in the mind of many Kenyans. Ruto cannot select a Kukuyu vice president and the Kikuyu’s support is not guaranteed hence the Kukuyu vote would be left hanging and their turnout would be low. Luhya or Kisii vote seems to be the best bet for Ruto and you will not be surprised to see Lusaka or Matiangi on the ballot to supplement the Kalenjin votes.
Also Read: Dear Mr Next President: The Ruto Legacy
So Raila would be the man to give Ruto a run for his money and Uhuru may remain mute during the battle. With the Luo vote intact, with coast and one other major tribe like the Kisii, Raila would have a winning chance. He may even throw a sweetener for Gideon Moi to eat into the Kalenjin vote. Raila versus Ruto battle would be one to watch since the Kikuyu vote would be irrelevant come 2022.