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KENYA POLITICS: The strategic mistake that halted Raila’s presidential bid.

After nullification of the August 8th poll to the re-election of Uhuru Kenyatta during the October 26th repeat poll, Raila Amolo Odinga aka Baba was the most powerful man in Kenya. Not that he is not powerful now but the aura of complete supremacy that surrounded him has been weakened by the second win of the son of Jomo.

Whereas Uhuru and his accomplices controlled the state machinery, Baba was the man of the people. An accomplished champion that rallied the masses in the belief that the government is in a quest to oppress and subdue the people of Kenya.

Before we divulge any further to this, it would be prudent to state that the cause Baba was fighting for is real and the political, social and economical injustices that have transpired since independence are an itch that would forever dominate our local politics.

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Needless to say, Baba’s strategic plan was flawless only short of perfection since in the end Uhuru seems to have won in this game of thrones but we haven’t seen the last nail in the coffin of Raila’s political career.

So let us dig in into the master piece of his ingenuity and decipher its achilles heel. It was clearly evident that following the land mark court ruling to nullify the August 8th poll, Jubilee was caught off guard and for a moment, the whole party seemed strategically lost.

The incumbent president and his co principal were all over the place and at one point, Uhuru was drunk at a rally indicating how distressed he was about the whole situation of being a power of the state and not of the people.

Like all wise men, Raila capitalized on his court win to rubber stamp what he had been stating all through – that Jubilee was a rogue government that did not respect the will of the people.

The campaign following the court ruling was a massive boost for Amolo’s supremacy. The whole strategy revolved around discrediting the government and the electoral system of which Kenyans believed since once bitten, twice shy and further more the court had inadvertently stated that the government was in cohort with the electoral body. Even Jubilee supporters doubted the tyranny of numbers theory despite its relevance in our political arena.

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And so the narrative begun, with the removal from office of the top electoral commissioners being the first agenda since how would you expect the perpetrators of an injustice to be the same persons to solve the problem?

Then the demonstrations followed to persuade the IEBC to take a drastic move in cleaning its house. As always, the government instituted its machinery to quell the protests of which media blackout was part of the strategy.

On the other hand, Jubilee focused on campaigning in its strongholds in a bid to confirm the August 8th poll numbers. Part of their strategy involved switching allegiance of Nasa partisans in support of their cause.

Up to this point, Nasa held all the cards to the presidential seat with an illegible poker face. Then came the strategic blunder that was a brilliant but mistimed move. Nasa decided to boycott the October 26th poll stating no confidence in the independence of the electoral body.

The boycott was intended to cripple the election process hence making it null and void. A brilliant move that was to yield the stated result but Nasa had shown their winning card too early giving Jubilee room to recover.

Before the boycott, the repeat election was to be between Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga only. This would have made the boycott relevant but Raila’s withdrawal allowed the reinstatement of other presidential aspirants in the race. The boycott was to make Uhuru vie against himself which would have been absurd. Nasa should have waited for the court ruling regarding aspirants in the presidential election before stating their boycott plans or halt the plans if the other presidential aspirants were declared eligible to contest.

Their greatest strategic move of boycotting the elections became their achilles heel. If Nasa had stated the move a day or two to elections, Uhuru would be the lone wolf in the elections which would have justified its nullification in the eyes of the people and the aftermath protests would have also been justified.

From here, Nasa’s road was downhill and all other moves to halt the election process was futile. Their greatest chance was the case on poll postponement which was not heard due to no quorum in the supreme court despite CJ Maraga willingness to hear the petition during a national holiday.

So the battle ended with Uhuru Kenyatta being declared the winner yet again despite claims that the numbers were cooked. IEBC were quick to open their servers this time to the public to clarify their decision following the elections in which 25 constituencies failed to participate.

Raila is back to the fight that he has been fighting all along and power still remains with the so called oppressors. We are yet to see what cards he will play but in the end, power resides where it belongs.

Also Read : 2022 Kenya Political Focus

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Posted by Timothy II Aperit

True believer in numbers. Statistics never lie. Bsc Financial Engineering MBA Finance ACCA