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MASK OFF: NASA afraid of a second loss

Nyamira, that is where they landed for their first official campaign tour post the Supreme Court ruling which nullified and voided the August 8 presidential poll.

Considering that Kenya is a vast country with several political regions, it would be interesting to analyze why NASA headed straight to Kisii land.

First, we can assume that the probability of a voter to switch their allegiance and vote for a different contester is negligible. Then, whoever voted for Uhuru would vote for him again and whoever voted for Raila would likewise do so.

With the above assumption, the super ball game for every contestant would be to switch the most vulnerable of their opponents’ voters and for NASA, Kisii and Nyamira counted as the safest strategic bet.

The Kisii -Nyamira region is where NASA lost its superiority according to the nullified August polls. In comparison to 2013 presidential elections, Kisii and Nyamira seem to have shifted their goal post and supported the government rather than the opposition hence they are the most vulnerable to switch allegiance.

This inadvertently means that despite NASA winning the petition, they are relying on the recently concluded polls to create winning strategies. This reliance indicates that NASA is afraid of a second loss which would be devastating to the political clout of all the coalition members.

On the other hand, Jubilee is confident that the October poll would be a replica of the August one. They are relying on full voter turn out and consolidation of the Kikuyu and Kalenjin votes to take the win home. Recent switch of Isaac Ruto to Jubilee has confirmed that the Kalenjin vote has been fully consolidated and we all know how Kikuyus vote.

We can then simulate expected election results where Jubilee only relies on Kalenjin and Kikuyu vote to win. We will assume 90% voter turn out in favor of Jubilee and NASA in their respective strongholds and we will also assume a turnout similar to the August 8th poll.

Two simulations can be formulated to explain why NASA is concentrating on Kisii and Nyamira. The first simulation would assume Kisii and Nyamira to be a neutral zone while the second simulation would assume the two to be NASA strongholds.

The results would be as follows:

Simulation I

Simulation I Source IEBC

Simulation I Source IEBC

Simulation II

Simulation II Source IEBC

From the first simulation which assumes that Kisii and Nyamira would be neutral zones, Uhuru gunned 8,086,546 votes while Raila got 6,958,493.

In the second simulation which assumes that Kisii and Nyamira would be NASA strongholds, Uhuru got 7,845,666 votes and Raila got 7,199,373 votes

We can then conclude that if Jubilee influence in Nyamira and Kisii remain upbeat, they are going to win again irrespective of whatever happens in the country. However, if NASA has regained its foothold, then Jubilee may still win but a re-run may be on the table.

Both scenarios put Jubilee ahead and so we may expect Jubilee to clinch the presidential seat yet again.

This analysis can only be altered if the voter turnout significantly shifts upwards or downwards.

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Posted by Timothy II Aperit

True believer in numbers. Statistics never lie. Bsc Financial Engineering MBA Finance ACCA

  • Sammie Kiogora

    There will be no re-run in this Oct elections because we only have two candidates. Winner takes it all.

    • TimothyAperit

      The elections were nullified hence we are starting again and all rules hold.