The game is set; the arena is the awaited 2017 general elections. All players are on the table counting their cards while watching the opponent’s poker face. Everyone is keen not to give away any stronghold cards before the final whistle but as we all know, Jubilee versus Cord would be the end game.
Above all political shenanigans, Jubilee corruption scandals and Cord’s in-house disputes may weigh heavily on 2017 general election outcome.
From NYS scandal to the ministry of health scandal, Jubilee government has been revered as the taxpayer’s money arch undertaker. Majority leader Aden Duale accusation that CORD leader Raila Odinga receives funds from CORD coalition governors in retaliation to opposition accusation that Jubilee is a corrupt government was just a low blow.
Looking at the spec in your brother’s eye while ignoring the log in your own eye depicts the failed strategy that Duale was aiming for while insinuating the above statement. Corruption cases in the Jubilee government are just a tad too much for the public to ignore any more and hinting that the opposition is also corrupt won’t help their cause.
Taking that Duale was acting in capacity as a Jubilee representative, it seems that Jubilee may be deviating from their strategy to counter CORD’s corruption allegations. In an earlier article, http://www.kenyabrief.com/political-game-theory-life-game-numbers/ , we had stipulated an optimum strategy for the ruling government in accordance to the Nash equilibrium strategy.
The government had one simple task to accomplish and make 2017 general elections a walk in the park. They had to publicize what they had done for the people, and then convince the general population to reelect them for continuation of the good work that they have done.
Campaign was to be done in the neutral zones especially Kisii, Mombasa, Narok, Kajiado, Nyamira and Nairobi to maximize their outcome. Touch up campaigns was to be done in the ruling government strong holds just to keep loyal voters in check before the elections while no or weak campaigns were to be done in Raila’s strong holds.
Uhuru has already visited most of the above counties and he is currently touring Central province. The tour which was unnecessary before comes in the wake of Jubilee tainted image from the corruption allegations. Rather than the seating president and his comrades defending the allegations, they should concentrate on what they have done for the people and promise to do more. Any statement linked to corruption would only give the opposition more ammunition to fight back. As they say, ignore a fact and it will fade away.
Despite the ruling government corruption woes, the opposition on the other hand is shooting its foot with in-house leadership disputes. If they can’t clean up their own house, how would we expect them to clean up the government?
Prolonging the selection of the flag bearer only indicates the division in the CORD coalition however much they try to down play it in the media front. Case in point: the “Men in Black” Kasarani saga where delegate voting was discontinued due to rivalry in the ODM leadership ranks. CORD co-principals Kalonzo Musyoka and Moses Wetang’ula think that they may have a better winning chance in the elections than the long time flag bearer Raila Odinga.
One can note that their concern may arise from the fact that “Baba” has been aspiring for the seat for over two decades but luck has not been on his side. Loss to Raila in 2017 general elections would mean an end to the CORD movement leaving the two co-principles exposed since Raila’s presidential aspiration bid would have come to an end.
Any break up from the CORD coalition by either Kalonzo Musyoka or Moses Wetang’ula would mean that the Jubilee government would have been handed the election win on a silver plate. The possibility of the break up is imminent since Raila may not step down and let anyone else be the flag bearer for the CORD coalition.
Kalonzo Musyoka and Moses Wetangula taking the lone wolf route and leaving the CORD coalition would be detrimental to CORD but beneficial to Jubilee. Not that they will stand a chance in winning the election but they would have splitted the CORD voting population further. The best bet for the two principles is to back Raila if he remains adamant to be the flag bearer or just join the government.
As it stands, the ruling government still has the upper hand to power despite the corruption scandals. Better the devil you know than the angel that you don’t. The opposition needs to clean up their house and focus on enlightening the general masses on Jubilee corruption scandals and failures for them to have a chance at the presidential seat. The opposition need to paint a really bad picture; find the dirty Jubilee linen and hang it in the public for all to see.
Also Read: Onyango Oloo the double agent